Predicting the Weather, It’s the science and the People

 

National Weather Service

National Academy of Public Service Member Dr. Louis Uccellini

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Transcription

David Martin: This is the good government show.

Dr. Louis Uccellini: The weather service in different forms have been around since 1870.

It’s the only agency, actually in government that has the word prediction or forecast in it. So it’s the only agency that’s actually, by mission predicting a future state. In this case, the atmosphere.

You have the weather service, you know, really focusing on public safety. And we’re authorized by law to do that.

I always tell people we predict from the sun to the sea, from Guam to the Mid-Atlantic, from the north slopes of Alaska, on the Arctic coast, down to the Caribbean, every day.

Well, you ask, is it worth it? It’s essential.

David Martin: $4 a day. Think about that. For just $4 a day, you could get the most accurate weather forecast in the world. That’s the cost to taxpayers for the best weather forecasting anywhere. And it comes from the National Weather Service. Welcome to the Good Government show. I’m your host, Dave Martin. First, help us share the message of good government by liking us and sharing us where we are on Facebook, Instagram and blue Sky and always share our show with your friends.

And don’t forget to review us! Let’s get everyone excited about good government. Okay, so on this show I’m talking with Doctor Louis Uccellini. For more than 33 years, he worked at the National Weather Service for nine years up until 2022. He was the director of the National Weather Service. Before that, he spent 11 years at NASA. Today, he’s a research professor at the University of Maryland.

He’s also a fellow with our friends at the National Academy of Public Administration. This is an organization dedicated to improving public service. He said his retirement lasted all of about two months. And I asked, and he still says he checks the weather forecast several times a day. When you listen to him talk, you hear both the incredible knowledge he has about working in government, but also the passion he brings to weather forecasting and working for the government, specifically the National Weather Service.

Coming up, a masterclass in the science of weather forecasting and how to direct an organization like the Weather Service. It’s also a masterclass in hear what folks do in public service and how they fulfill their mission. And that mission is to serve all of us and figure out when it’s going to rain. So after the break, Doctor Louis Uccellini, former director of the National Weather Service.

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Welcome to the Good Government show. I’m happy to have with me Doctor Louis Uccellini, the former head of the National Weather Service. Welcome to the show.

Dr. Louis Uccellini: Oh, thank you for having me.

David Martin: You’re welcome. Thank you for coming. Now I’m going to run through your rather impressive list of credentials. You’ve had 33 years in the National Weather Service. You were most recently the director of the National Weather Service from 2013 to 2022. You were the director of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction? For a few years before that. Director of the National Weather Service, office of meteorology.

Prior to that, you worked for NASA. You’re on the World Meteorological Organization. You’re a U.S. permanent representative. Let me think. If I missed any of your highlights of your credentials. You’re a doctor. You won an award for the Exceptional Scientific Achievement medal from NASA. Yes.

Dr. Louis Uccellini: Yes.

David Martin: So you’ve been busy?

Dr. Louis Uccellini: I’ve been busy both doing the research and operational.

David Martin: And now you’re at the University of Maryland. You’re a research professor there.

Dr. Louis Uccellini: Right?

David Martin: So what do you do for fun? Just what does large sky gardening.

Dr. Louis Uccellini: During the winter, I’m focused on, winter weather, snow. That’s what got me interested in meteorology. In the first place. But snow storms on low. So. All right.

David Martin: Well, I was going to ask. I mean, how does one become a weatherman? What got you interested in becoming a decided to become a spent a career looking at the sky?

Dr. Louis Uccellini: Well, when my parents were alive, they would tell you that I was interested in looking up and pointing at clouds before I could even talk. My first recollection is, my mother taking me to the window when it was snowing because she knew I would, you know, settle down, you know, just, you know.

David Martin: For some hot chocolate to look out the window.

Dr. Louis Uccellini: Yeah. Well, the I’m talking two, three, four years old. Okay. Now that I was, you know, fascinated with, the world in front of me turning white, you know, the whole world changing right before my eyes. And I always wanted to understand, you know, how I could snow, how I could change to rain on Long Island? Well, it was still snowing in New York City.

All these questions always popped into my head as a kid. I don’t know how that happens. All right. I was interested in. I was able to fulfill my dream. Have you have as many other as many other meteorologists do?

David Martin: So have you been up to, the Arctic or down to the Antarctic? So you’ve been surrounded by snow everywhere?

Dr. Louis Uccellini: No, I haven’t, but I used to read books on the, on the Arctic. And, you know how it stayed snow covered or ice covered even in the summer, which is not necessarily true anymore, but, Yeah, but I never, never been to. In fact, the Antarctic is the last continent. It’s, that I have not been on.

All right.

David Martin: Well, you. I’m sure I have a feeling you can make a phone call and talk to somebody. So let’s just talk a little bit about the National Weather Service. What is the weather service? Do what? What is your mission at the weather service?

Dr. Louis Uccellini: Well, the mission is to provide observations for weather, water, the hydrologic component, climate, and, to provide those observations, forecast and warnings. And now the provision of impact based assistance support services have been inserted into that mission statement for the protection of life and property and the enhancement of the national economy. It’s the only agency, actually in government that has the word prediction or forecast in it.

So it’s the only agency that’s actually, by mission predicting, a future state in this case, the atmosphere very exciting and, very challenging. You know, it’s been built around the weather service and different forms have been around since, 1870. So, it’s been a challenge getting the predictions right to us. You. It can’t be perfect.

But I it so it’s useful for decision making, and that’s what’s really important. Now the predictions are good enough. The observations are good enough to be useful for critical decision making. So that’s what motivates people to come into the weather service, including me.

David Martin: So let me just, you know, kind of play devil’s advocate for with you for a minute. You know, there’s a joke that says, oh, I’d love to be a TV weatherman. You could be wrong all the time. And keep your job. Tell me why that’s true or why. Why that’s not true.

Dr. Louis Uccellini: Well, it might be. Might have been more true back in the days when I was growing up. Yeah, because the expectations were pretty low for the predictions and what’s happened in my lifetime. And I’ve played a role in some of this, is that predictions has gotten good enough? Not mostly because of the introduction of numerical modeling, into the forecast process, but I would say since the early 90s and the, especially at the turn of the decade, at the turn of the century, they’ve gotten good enough that decision making has come to rely on them.

And those who don’t rely on on them on these forecasts and try to conduct their business if they’re weather sensitive, can’t do it. So it’s it’s, it’s really been a major, revolution, I would say, in forecasting that. Sure. We still get chokes, but there’s a lot more people using this information for decision. Life saving decision and decision tree related to the, not only lives, but livelihood, you know, and business and financial markets, etc., etc. so it’s become a very integral part of decision making, throughout, this country.

David Martin: We’re talking right now at the end of April, there’s a lot going on in Washington. There’s a lot of talk in Washington about cutting the budget for the for NOAA and also cutting the budget for the National Weather Service. I think there was one senator who said, why do I need NOAA? Why do I need the weather service?

I can just turn on my local news forecast and I can, you know, get my weather forecast there, you know, is this money well spent? Is the National Weather Service performing the right function?

Dr. Louis Uccellini: Yes. I honestly believe that, the infrastructure needed to make a forecast involves global observations, global modeling, which is very expensive. In fact, the introduction of numerical modeling, actually, was a big part of the start of the mainframe computers, the supercomputers that we think of now, for just managing that, data information is also critical for running these numerical models.

That takes not only, you know, it takes money, but it takes follow through sustaining the operation on a 24 by seven basis, 365 days a year. That’s that’s not an easy task to do. Secondly, there’s forecasting needed for every community. The weather service covers the domain from Guam to the, Central Atlantic. Guam is in the wet, western Pacific all the way to the central intake from from Alaska, northern Alaska, all the way into the Caribbean.

Day in, day out, day in, day out. And it’s a it’s a critical public service that needs to be there for everybody all the time. Now, there’s talent, information, specific information that’s needed for decision making in business, in public safety and in at work sites, you know, really, really specific. The green energy now demands, very, detailed weather forecast.

That’s the all the private sector in my opinion. So it is a partnership. And that’s the thing that I think needs to be understood. It’s not an either or. Today, there’s an incredible partnership in the United States, and the United States is leading the world in this, where, we provide information, free and open information that goes out to be used by the public.

It can be used by anybody, including and especially the private sector that’s serving specific customers with tailored products that, is critical for this country moving forward. So so we meet we we interact, we collaborate with private sector in every stage of the process, from observations to the production of the models through the dissemination of information.

David Martin: Why does the government have to do it when I can just, you know, go to AccuWeather or go to Weather Underground on my phone or my WeatherBug app?

Dr. Louis Uccellini: Yeah, well, they rely on every bit of data that we produce, every bit of data and observations in the models, or in the satellite observations. That’s Billion-Dollar. You know, getting those satellites up there and sustaining them. That’s an infrastructure that they rely on, to provide these specialized, tailored service units, which I believe are really important for the livelihood of this country.

But, you know, if you have a monopoly, dealers and others think about the private sector’s role in all of this. You have the weather service, you know, really focusing on public safety. And we’re all authorized by law to do that. And then you have a private sector hotel or tailored products and services to specific customers. So including the airlines, including trains, including energy.

David Martin: So the different missions, you’re saying.

Dr. Louis Uccellini: It’s different missions and it’s yet yet there’s a there’s a relationship that needs to be sustained. Now, what’s interesting in countries that go totally private so that everything is done by one company winning some bid, the rest of the private sector and that country dies. It just fades. It just goes away. In this country, we don’t have that.

It’s been growing. It’s grown now to, my understanding is a 13 to $15 billion annual, industry, no other country.

David Martin: To weather forecast, a private weather advisory.

Dr. Louis Uccellini: Forecasting. Yeah, yeah. Wow. It’s a it’s big business. It’s big business.

David Martin: So we’re we’re project 2025 has said that NOAA and the National Weather Service is, quote, a colossal operation that has become one of the main drivers of the climate change alarm industry. How do you respond to that?

Dr. Louis Uccellini: So, it’s complicated as everything is.

David Martin: Nothing simple.

Dr. Louis Uccellini: So, so, so first of all, Noah, Noah has basically five line offices, right? National Weather Service is one of those five. Within that, one of the five you had Craig McClain on is the research component. And, the oceanic and atmospheric research, they have been one of the leaders. It’s not a leader in the development of global models directed towards the study, towards the research of climate change.

They developed, this in partnership, not only within the, other agencies in the United States, but also with partners around the world and they’re, they’re, they’re known, for that. They the models forecast that for climate change that they produced in the 1990s are actually verifying today. Right. You know, it’s getting warmer at rates that are actually larger than what they were modeling.

Okay. So one has an and the impact of that on the natural system that they predicted would happen is happening. For example, a warmer climate can handle more water vapor. So you know, get heavy rainfall, greater rainfall rates than we had before. And that’s happening. You know, you’re having incredible destruction with these flash floods. Now, whether it’s not only in, the the most recent one in Asheville that got a lot of attention, that was associated with a tropical system, but you basically had rainfall rates there that they had never observed before, just like Tennessee, had one back in 2021 when I looked at the damage, from that and East River Valley southwest

of Nashville, Tennessee, it look like an inland tsunami. Okay. That kind of destruction in the same thing again in Nashville with buildings turned into splinters and boards falling like that, you know, and it was incredible seeing the amount of destructive material at the top of that lake with a boat sitting on top of it. Right. Okay. So so this is happening.

And they had a responsibility, through the government to report on the change in climate. Every year. They had to give a status report. That’s that’s not a, you know, an alarm. I mean, they did it in partnership, right? They did it in partnership with with academic communities, other agencies and, and with the global partners as well. So these are what came out of that part of NOAA when they conflate the weather service with that, I should note that we don’t have in our mission statement and didn’t have in our mission, and didn’t even have in our authorization for the weather service.

The words climate change. So they’re really sentimentally conflating our role in forecasting weather out to two weeks in advance and providing the data. And and from one center, the sub seasonal, the seasonal forecast out to nine months. That was the range of time that the weather service was responsible for and still is responsible for.

David Martin: So right now it appears that some 500 people have left the National Weather Service. How understaffed is the weather service and how big an effect is the loss of, these people from the service.

Dr. Louis Uccellini: So if I leave would be greater than 500. Now after last week, from what I’ve heard.

David Martin: Okay.

Dr. Louis Uccellini: And, you know, a lot of these changes are made, not in a very transparent way. Yeah. So it’s hard to get that information of exactly what’s happening. But, my understanding is it’s gone, beyond that. Well, I think it it provides incredible risk to the National Weather Service actually meeting its mission that it cherishes to, provide, the observations and forecast warnings and impact assistance and support services.

On a 24 by seven, 365 day basis. There’s no downtime for the weather service, and we’re covering an area that’s about half the northern hemisphere, from the tropics up to the to the Arctic. It’s an incredible responsibility with a number that’s around 4000. So that’s you know, that’s a very a situation when you have 4000 individuals.

Providing this lives, saving information. And it’s the, the products and services that are used by the private sector as well.

David Martin: Right.

Dr. Louis Uccellini: 4000 people serving a country with 330 million. So when you talk about how much does it cost and cost across an individual? McDonald’s has gone up in price now. So, yes, we used to say, you know, the Big Mac and fries and a Coke. All right. One meal from, from every individual pays for the National Weather Service, about 1.2 to 1 point.

David Martin: So it’s about I read somewhere, it’s about a cost. The American taxpayers $4 a day to fund the National Weather Service. Is that accurate?

Dr. Louis Uccellini: That’s that’s close. Yeah, that’s 4 to 5. I’ve heard five. Okay.

David Martin: Yeah. So one of the things I read was that, you know, they’re talking about, having to cut back from multiple daily forecasts like just one per day. Does that really matter?

Dr. Louis Uccellini: But if that is at times when, you know, changes are occurring,

David Martin: So as long as.

Dr. Louis Uccellini: It’s for a forecast for a normal shower turns into, you know, a flood producing, rainfall event, you know, things have come together a bit stronger than originally forecast. So. Yeah. So it just offers increasing risk. I, you know, and it’s this collaborative relationship now that was built from what we call the Weather Nation initiative back in the last decade between the weather service and the emergency management community, at every government level, local, state and federal.

And those are the people that are saving lives and mitigating property loss. All right. So they got it. They want to be proactively prepared. So this is collaborative relationship not only within the forecast process within the weather service, but but a collaborative relationship with the emergency management. And now the private sector. So everybody’s on the same song page doing a consistent, forecast.

And, you know it, you like to think that you’re always on guard with respect to that. But with these cuts there, there are there are shifts that are not being felt. And, and balloon launches that are not being made for, for the radius on which is being shown to be still the most important data set that’s being used by numerical models.

So this is all increasing risk. And at some point it could pull apart, it could snap. And a forecast is missed at a critical time. That’s you’re just increasing the risk for that happening.

David Martin: Now I wanted to ask about the balloons. You know, apparently weather balloons get launched. The daily around the around the nation. Tell me why that’s important and what we get from those weather balloons.

Dr. Louis Uccellini: So first of all, that they’re they’re launched around the globe.

David Martin: Okay.

Dr. Louis Uccellini: You have that. You have to have and and what’s really interesting about radio signs and balloon launches, it wasn’t until the 19 late 1930s and then into World War two, and then after World War two, that you needed observations of temperature, dew point for the moisture and winds, and you needed vertical observations for those. And the driver for that was the aviation industry, the burst and the growth of the Global Aviation Committee.

So one of the things that that the WMO, the World Meteorological Organization, focused on when they first spun up within the UN after World War two, was a standard for these measurements. And because we I everybody recognized that you needed to have that information globally for airplanes to fly economically, you know, from an economic point of view, but also from a safety perspective.

David Martin: But our weather balloon is still that important.

Dr. Louis Uccellini: Yes. So what happened? The numerical modeling community relied on those basic state parameters. Those are the basic state parameters that are used in numerical modeling today. Back in the 1950s. In the 1960s, when the numerical models were being created, being tested every day in front of forecasters, they weren’t very good. One of the things, one of the things that was really apparent in the analysis of these models was that you got to rely on the radio sounds more effectively with respect to the vertical resolution.

And what’s really important in the modeling framework that we all know is the backbone of forecasting around the globe today, is that you need the vertical resolution of all those parameters at the same place at the same time, independently measured. That’s exactly what radiation does. And if that.

David Martin: Goes away, or if we have less, if we have less of that research, then what happens.

Dr. Louis Uccellini: If those that okay, well those data sets now how all the data sets that go into models are evaluated every day. Right? Every day for what is the best observation system in those model forecasts the radius sun and see the first the second every day. Okay. That’s amazing because we use a lot of satellite data. We use, aircraft data around the world.

We use ship data for the oceans. And you got these Bui systems. Now the Argo floats. All this gets into the models because you got.

David Martin: I check my I check my, weather buoy, Long Island Sound. Every time I go out. So.

Dr. Louis Uccellini: Yeah, every time you go. So. So those are the the radius sign is still the backbone of the data sets that go in, because they also affect all the other model, all the other data sets that get into the models they have. They work to improve those data sets. And I can go into examples for each one. But the most important one is satellites.

The satellite doesn’t measure temperature, dew point or winds that arrived and it arrived in layers. They need that vertical resolution of the radius on to more effectively be reusable within a numerical model. So it’s really it’s really an important data set that you don’t want to mess around with. And that’s one of my concerns right now, is that we’re losing the twice per day radio sans, and the number of stations because of staffing shortages.

So I think that’s a critical, impact that we need to pay attention to.

David Martin: The National Weather Service has an annual budget of about 1.3 billion. Is this government money well spent?

Dr. Louis Uccellini: Yes, I believe so. It’s, it’s it’s interesting that the emergency management community that started working with us more effectively and we started working with them. I should turn that around. We started working with them more effectively because there’s a lot of things we needed to do differently. Back, the during the first part of this century, when we realized that if we could get a forecast and warnings that were directed towards their key decision points at critical times, they could proactively get, you know, be prepared for these types of, extreme events that the United States, by the way, leads the world in fire, severe weather, floods, blizzards.

I mean, you put all of this together. Yeah. We we need this information more than any other nation in the world. And I didn’t even mention hurricanes in that list, so. So the.

David Martin: Thing is, we’ll talk to the guy from the National Hurricane Center next, so we’ll get.

Dr. Louis Uccellini: Out, so.

David Martin: We’ll get all.

Dr. Louis Uccellini: That. Yeah, I hear I was his friend was my hill. He also gave me for one slip.

David Martin: But that’s all right. Well.

Dr. Louis Uccellini: So the the main thing is when you ask, is it worth it. It’s it’s essential for public safety. And the emergency management is the first to tell not only conferences whether conferences that information, they’re the ones who canvass the Hill to emphasize the point that how they need us for them to not just react to these events surprise, you know, but that they proactively preparing for hurricanes up to a week in advance now.

Right. You know, they’re following the forecasts with the weather service and and and then getting communities ready and responsive to the likelihood that the hurricane’s going to affect them. And then they work with FEMA for, you know, relocating, assets, you know, to bring in as soon as it’s safe to get back into those areas.

All of this is happening now, and it’s being driven by weather forecasts. So, yes, I think it’s essential.

David Martin: We call ourselves on the good government, show the voice of public service. And I want to read a quote from you that I found here in my doing my little research about you. Doctor, it says public service is not measured by the bottom line, but how well we serve society with the resources allocated by Congress. Is that is that an accurate quote?

Dr. Louis Uccellini: Exactly.

David Martin: Yeah. Is this a public service you’re doing?

Dr. Louis Uccellini: I think it’s an essential public service. And I believe it’s recognized by everybody on the Hill who, you know, not only provided us the annual budgets, not exactly everything we needed, but you know, you as a as a good government, you know, advocate you you live with the budget you’re given, not with the one you wish you had.

Okay. But the point is, the hill worked very effectively, with us when I was the director and not only listen to us, but listen to all our partners, out there in terms of the essential nature. And, you know, it was really incredible, the city weather and the weather authorization that reaffirmed our mission and, and, and directed us to do impact based decision support services that was passed by unanimous consent, bicameral, bipartisan consent from both the House and the Senate in 2017.

Because of the essential nature of what we do. So I feel really strongly that, we have every you know, the people need to understand how important this is, that the National Weather Service provides this information not only to the general public, but to a private sector who works with the weather service, and it influences every aspect of what we do.

To to better serve the American public. I think this is a good news story that, you know, it shouldn’t be minimized by one sentence in a report that I think was totally uninformed about exactly what we do today versus what they thought we did back, you know, in the 1980s and 1990s.

David Martin: So and you’re talking about this project, 2025 stuff.

Dr. Louis Uccellini: I’m talking about project 2025. I believe that that was an uninformed, paragraph that they wrote, especially, with regard to the National Weather Service.

David Martin: You years ago, a few years ago, you instituted what I guess was fairly major reforms, to the National Weather Service, something called the Weather Ready Nation. Right. So you’ve already really streamlined, made the weather service more efficient, is that correct?

Dr. Louis Uccellini: That’s correct. We had to, back when I took over in 2013, we had a major task at hand, to deal with, budget, confusion and impropriety and prior, that prior directors had to deal with. And, we streamlined the budget structure. We streamlined the budget process. We made sure that the accountability factor of people inside the weather service, who was developing the budget, executing the budget, and reporting to the Congress remained consistent to the information developed along that train.

And it worked. And the Hill, I think, was very satisfied. I mean, they had to approve those changes and we had to test them out. We had to do a test run for a year. But it worked in terms of getting these projects out, but also supporting the Weather Nation initiative, which is a was, a major transformation in the weather service in and of itself.

And that all occurred in 2 or 3 years from, 2013 up to about 2016.

David Martin: So the weather service is already efficient. We don’t need we don’t need a government efficiency committee to make you more efficient, do we?

Dr. Louis Uccellini: We always strive to be as efficient as possible and as new science and technology became available and is becoming available, we’re in this now revolution with respect to artificial intelligence. There are changes that, will come probably come out of that. But what’s really interesting is that as we work through any kind of, what we call post-processing breakthrough, which is, you know, what happens when you get all this model data and you want to extract the most useful information from it.

Now it’s going to be artificial intelligence. It usually doesn’t replace people in a system with better information and more reliability, so that the decision makers can deal with people who, offer them, some level of certainty and reliability for forecasts which will never be perfect. Okay. And I think I need to emphasize that forecasts will never be perfect.

Okay. And and people are making decisions now seven eight, nine, ten days in advance. So there’s a level of uncertainty that has to be dealt with still even with these advancements. And that’s where the human factor is going to come in to, keep that level of trust, a trusted relationship between the meteorological community and those that actually have to make decisions that affect the livelihood of everybody in this country.

So, yeah, I think it’s an exciting time. Every time you have a new breakthrough. It’s it’s an exciting time to be a meteorologist.

David Martin: All right. We’re going to get back in just a moment, and we’re going to talk to you about your thoughts, your true thoughts on government. We’re going to do that in just a minute.

Once you wrap up this episode of The Good Government Show, give a listen to our friends over at Good News for lefties. This daily podcast highlights news stories that show there’s more good news out there. Other people in government are really trying to do the right thing. That’s good news for lefties. Listen, we’re listening now.

Doctor Louis Uccellini, you’ve had almost 50 years in government service. Tell me, what is good government?

Dr. Louis Uccellini: First of all, good government involved a mission statement that people believe in, that work inside that agency and those that are affected by the, whatever the outcome of that mission, statement is, it’s I think it’s incredibly important, to start with that as a foundation. And I tell students when they coming out of college or, young professionals even coming out of the private sector, when you’re applying for a job, whether it’s in the public or private sector, know the mission, believe in the mission.

And that’s the basis, for good government, that you build upon, then the whole budget process, you know, using taxpayer money, you know, using the money provided by the citizens of the country to execute that, that that mission, you have to focus on that. Like I said, you might have ideas to do other things that might be relevant, you know, downstream or might be relevant right now, but you just can’t go and say, oh, I’ve got all this money to play with.

I think I’ll do a or I’ll be you got to focus on advancing the mission and, and make sure that the people out there that are using your products and services understand what you’re doing and agree that that’s needed. And that’s something else that’s, you know, that’s stopping them from, you know, whatever they’re supposed to be doing with the whatever that, that, you know, agency is, is, is doing so, so I really firmly believe there’s, there is a the and there’s an infrastructure, there’s a foundation to make that happen.

It’s called authorization by the Hill. Appropriated resources by the Hill. An executive agency doesn’t print money. I always tell folks when they came into my office and they wanted to do A, B, and C with, you know, 50 more people. And, I mean, I would take them to the window and show them that white capital, they could see something.

I said, look, I don’t print money, you know, they don’t even print money, but they appropriate it. And and that’s what’s key. That’s what’s really key. Good government. We have the foundation for good government right up to the whole legislative process. The executive branch only executes what Congress says and pays for. And we have to remember that.

And you have to stick to that, appropriation, not only the budget, but the language, because that’s what you’ve been. That’s what you’ve been told to do, essentially. So. Right. Okay. So that’s that’s how the government works. That’s how it’s supposed to work. That’s how it worked. When I was the director of the weather service and we were very successful in not only meeting today’s mission, but but dealing with the research community and the new technology to advance ourselves to, to continue to improve with the new technology and science that’s being brought to us.

So that’s that’s what I consider good government.

David Martin: All right. Well, that is a good, complete answer. What drew you to public service? What made you want to get into public service?

Dr. Louis Uccellini: It was interesting. I wanted to understand the weather and I wanted to understand forecasting and I wanted to understand why the forecast was right sometimes and why it was terribly wrong sometimes, especially when it was predicting heavy snow and we didn’t get a flake.

David Martin: So I’m sure.

Dr. Louis Uccellini: Yeah, it disappointed me to know. And so I always was interested in that, which is why. And I was told as I was growing up, you, you know, meteorology is math and physics. You, you’ve got to go to a university, you’ve got to get a college education. My idea was to get it.

David Martin: Yeah, but why public service? I mean, why just become a weatherman? You know, on on channel seven?

Dr. Louis Uccellini: I didn’t know about public. I didn’t seal public service as much as I felt I wanted. I wanted to to and understand and increase my understanding of meteorology. That’s why I went. I went to NASA because it was an incredible research opportunity. Watch it. And it worked for me. It absolutely worked for me. But I started getting this nagging feeling I wanted to improve that forecast.

And if you’re going to improve the forecast, like I said before, there’s only one agency in the country that has the word prediction in it or forecast. Noah has it writ large now, but that wasn’t true when I made the transition to the weather service. And then there was going through the modernization. It wasn’t until I got into the weather service that I, I, as you know, an individual, started understanding the meaning of public servants and the meaning of the importance of missions, that that people around me were all there to serve that mission.

And I know that’s even true now, because we got reviewed by McKinsey and company in 20 1415 and they they went out. And if you a lot of people who worked in the weather service and they came back flabbergasted that 80 to 85% of them, the first thing they mentioned when they talked about the weather service, the mission, we came here because of the mission.

We live for the mission. That’s an incredible number 85% for them, you know, was off the charts according to McKinsey. So that’s what I started feeling and understanding about public service was when I, when I got into the weather service and we had a live that every day. And when I came in, I was in charge of the largest forecast office in the country at the time, and it just opened my eyes up to the dedication to public service of everybody in that that forecast office.

And then as I became more familiar with the rest of the weather service and interacted with people around the country, it was exactly the same. So that’s how that’s how I got interested in public service, was my association with the National Weather Service.

David Martin: Does someone inspire you who is in public service?

Dr. Louis Uccellini: Well, I tell you the biggest. Yes, the people I worked with international one of the service. And I gotta tell you, every time I went into a field offices and I visited as many as I could, my goal was to visit every one by Covid. Gotten away in 2020, was their dedication to public service? That’s what inspired me.

I mean, it was just just incredible. And they were leaders that inspired me. You know, the director, Joe Friday was the director of the weather service back during the modernization when I entered the weather service, and I, I was in awe of him being able to deal with day to day products and services and and all the science and new science technology that was being brought into the weather service.

Yeah, he was one. But I had people in NASA. Joanne Simpson, first woman to get a PhD in meteorology, was my my boss for about nine years. Talk about inspiration and and and stick to it in this to get the job done. You know, in the research world, she was, she was phenomenal. And then, of course, my, my professors at the University of Wisconsin.

So I’ve had great mentors as I’ve grown through the weather service. But what you talk about inspiration, it’s coming to work every day and knowing the people you’re working with, but just as dedicated as you are. So it’s, that’s a long answer, but that’s what drove that’s what drove me.

David Martin: So 50, almost 50 years in government, just short of 50 years in government. What would you like people to know about how government works?

Dr. Louis Uccellini: I would say 80, but the 99.9% level of all the people I work with, their dedication to, making the government service work, for the people in the United States was really amazing to watch again, what people do, authorized by Congress and paid for by Congress. So they’re not free. Free wilderness for the most part. It’s, I think people should know that every day I was, I was particularly, I would say angry, actually, when the effort went in to, to reduce to just go into agencies and look for waste, fraud and abuse.

Right. That was the goal of this onslaught into different agencies. And do we are we reading about the waste, fraud and abuse today? No, because you might find one little thing that happened or maybe even one big thing by one person. But, you know, I wouldn’t smear people working in government with that notion that this, this, this it you waste fraud and abuse it.

This was just an excuse to get in. And I, I was just really, I would say angry almost with respect to people saying that the government workers, you know, there’s a preponderance of, government workers, and including especially those in the weather service that I knew and inspired me as we just discussed, that they would find waste, fraud and abuse.

So, so I think people need to know how important the government service is. And, I’m particularly worried about action for the future because there are people like me in the universities today. The privates are in the military. We hired a number of people coming out of the military that had there’s tremendous, work, knowledge basis, for all the technical stuff, all the, instruments that, that the weather service, and systems that the weather service runs on a 24 by seven basis.

I think they I would hope that they would remain inspired to come into the weather service to come into public service, as part of their career, because it is a tremendously rewarding experience. And it’s and it’s important for this country as well. So, you know, that’s that’s why I feel, and I feel like, you know, what, the work we do is important, for the, for this government, even the current administration to move forward, they’re going to have to rely on the, on the, the government workers in every agency if they actually want to accomplish something, they want to be productive and something, they’ll come back and

rely on the civil servants to make that happen.

David Martin: What’s, what’s the best part of the job? And I have a two part question there. What’s the best part of the job? And when you make a weather prediction and you look out and you go, yep, we got this wood. Right. How does that feel? And what do you got to go? Yeah. We got this word wrong today.

How does that make you feel there. Yeah. Three questions all in one. Sorry.

Dr. Louis Uccellini: Yeah. So the best part was, I actually enjoy going to work every day. In the weather business, there’s always something going on in this country. Yes. All right. That that rely on the weather service. So, if you say. Okay, we’re in a severe weather season now. Well, you also have fire weather going on right at the same time.

I mean, no, Los Angeles had that incredible fire in January.

David Martin: So there’s always a weather. There’s always a weather emergency going on.

Dr. Louis Uccellini: Yeah. Right. And it’s and it has all these instrumentation and radars. There’s automated surface observing systems.

David Martin: So you never.

Dr. Louis Uccellini: Bought the radio side since always thinks the track. You used to have these stand ups every morning. Yep. To track everything that’s going on. When you have a big system, I was told by a researcher way back when I was started at NASA, Rick Anthony’s, he said, the one thing you don’t want to get wrong is, you know, I want to get a forecast wrong for the big one.

So, he was absolutely right. So, you know, there when you hit the big ones, you’re exhilarated, you know, feel really good when you miss him. You got a boner. You just got to stand up to it. The fact that you missed it. And here are the reasons why you know, so you always use it. In fact, one of the things that’s in the post processing, the post mortem, with respect to an event, going through what went right and what went wrong, all right, is, is a key part of that post, whether you’ve made a good forecast or you made one that totally busted.

Okay. You got to do both because there’s always something to learn, even from the the success.

David Martin: You learn from the failures of the success. Right?

Dr. Louis Uccellini: Well, you learn the learning process, could be just as equal for the success that, we could have done it two days earlier or something. You know, if there was a lot of uncertainty in the model. So you you go through everything, the modeling process, the observation process, the modeling process, the dissemination process. If you have a perfect forecast and the dissemination system breaks down, okay.

What does the forecast in fact, you know, there’s no intrinsic value in a forecast unless it influences the decision process.

David Martin: Right. So there’s a lot to it. Yes.

Dr. Louis Uccellini: So there’s a lot to look at even in a successful, forecasting aspect. Was that a service provision meet what you believe could have been met with the forecast and warnings that were were provided. And that was an important aspect of discovering, hey, our job doesn’t end with the forecast and warning anymore. This was back in 2011, 2012 timeframe.

That was the motivation for whether any nation we had to be able to influence the decision process, not make the decisions, not tell people what to decide, but to give them the information they needed for their changing risk preferences and for their key decision points for them to get ready for what was coming. So that was pretty exciting stuff.

And, you know, perfect forecast doesn’t lead to the right decision. What good’s the perfect forecast. Right.

David Martin: So okay.

Dr. Louis Uccellini: So let’s so let’s look at that whole picture. And I believe 2025 didn’t capture that change that happened last decade. Right. So it just focused on stuff that has been floating around for the last 25 years. Put it into one paragraph. And I didn’t realize what is really essential, to, to actually decide whether what the weather service is doing is good or not.

It’s got to influence good decisions.

David Martin: Tell me something about the National Weather Service that folks may not know about. What’s something your agency does? People may not, you know, know.

Dr. Louis Uccellini: Well, that’s interesting. The the National Weather Service has 11 service areas. Okay. We all hear about hurricanes. We all hear about the tornadoes. Blizzards. So that’s, you know, they all have their separate programs all year long. People that are focusing on, you know, what’s needed from a programmatic point of view. We also have space weather prediction. We also predict that marine environment that you love to sail around it.

Okay. You heard about me. So I tell I it’s the word prediction is is a fundamental key word in our in our mission because it takes incredible global infrastructure to make it happen successfully. So what I always tell people, we predict from the sun to the sea, from Guam to the Mid-Atlantic, from the north slopes of Alaska, on the Arctic coast, down to the Caribbean every day.

All right. So we had space weather. You have to do the, the, the free atmosphere that, you know, for your clouds, for, for airline safety even. I mean, you you’re always doing something that’s involving important, decision processes. Now, from space weather through the atmosphere to the top of the ocean. And the oceanographers now are making ocean predictions all the way down to the bottom that we need to use in our models, because the atmospheric, storm systems depend upon the energy source in the ocean.

So I don’t think people understand the the broad, you know, everybody looks out the window. I have to say, you know, that’s what’s important to everybody alive is what’s happening to them, right?

David Martin: Yes, yes.

Dr. Louis Uccellini: But to do all of that, you have to forecast from the sun to the sea. Okay. And the weather service does that today. And I think when I start talking to folks out in the general public and I lay out this big domain, that’s an incredible domain space, isn’t it? I mean.

David Martin: You know, for sure.

Dr. Louis Uccellini: And then they said, you do that with 4000 people. I say, yeah.

David Martin: Let me ask you a question. Do you ever turn on the local news just to check the weather?

Dr. Louis Uccellini: I, I do have, I don’t watch much TV. All right. I think I’m part of that. That general trend where, people lie on the web.

David Martin: But do you check the weather, mother? Do you listen to the radio.

Dr. Louis Uccellini: Or things like always? I try my family, not some. Okay. I’m always checking the weather. And we have I have, different groups of retirees that, you know, some are interested in. They are not running along the coast, some of them interested in winter, you know, weather and all that. So it keeps me going. The hurricane group. So and, of course, you know, one of the big things, is fire weather.

That’s really the new, new, I’d say the new kid.

David Martin: So you’re always you’re always checking the weather. In other words, you’re always trying weather. Well, this is this is the good government show. We always try to bring it back to good government. Tell me about a good government project that you you were part of that you’re proud of.

Dr. Louis Uccellini: Well, the, the biggest thing is that every organization I’ve been in, I, I’ve actually been in the creation mode. So when I got to NASA, the lab was being, spun up. I wound up creating a section under Joanne Simpson in, a mesoscale modeling analysis, and, and it’s application to the use, and then interpretation of satellite data.

We created that section. All right. And I felt really good that we were we were, meeting the needs not only of, the laboratory, but of NASA. And then being part of the modernization of the National Weather Service. Was really exciting was one of the things that attracted me in the 1990s is what brought the Doppler radar, for example, into the weather service was a lot more, better models, better satellites.

But everybody, saw the Doppler radar on TV every day and said, wow, this is really fantastic stuff. But I think the thing I’m most proud of was the restructuring of the, weather service budget, because it was totally incomprehensible to anybody. I was on the corporate board for 14 years before I became the director, and even I didn’t understand that structure.

And but I did understand that it it caused a lot of confusion even in people trying to make it work. So we restructured that to map the forecast process and simplified it so that it became more transparent to everybody, including the people on the hill, who could see where the money was going and how it was being applied according to the appropriation law.

And then we would come back and, and then review on a quarterly basis. Not only, you know, how we were spending the money directed towards the projects and how those projects were advancing and it worked. And absolutely, there.

David Martin: Was no need for a government efficiency investigation because you’ve already done the work.

Dr. Louis Uccellini: Well, you know, people who come in and are new, if they want to investigate, if they want to look fine, but don’t start with the with the notion that all the government workers are just laying around or sitting around and not doing their jobs, I, I, you know, that’s what really that’s what really, angered me with respect to NOAA and, and the weather services that, the people there.

And by the way, the weather service actually depends on components of NOAA, the, you know, satellites, the the the research.

David Martin: Well, sure. You’re you’re all part. Right. Yeah.

Dr. Louis Uccellini: Right. And the point is, yeah, I it’s going to be pretty hard to live up to those headlines back from January 20th that, you know, this is just, you know, people sitting around not doing their jobs. So, that to me it’s it’s just.

David Martin: Well, you have you have certainly shown in the last, conversation that that is absolutely, certainly not true, at least not from your point of view. Doctor Louis, you Chiellini, the former director of the National Weather Service, 33 years, the National Weather Service, almost 50 years in government, including at NASA. An incredible, resumé, an incredible body of work.

Thank you for your public service. It’s been a pleasure talking with you. I could go on this for hours, but, really a fascinating look at the weather service and, you know, an inside look at government from your perspective. Thank you so much.

Dr. Louis Uccellini: And thank you, David, for having me.

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Here’s what I learned a few years ago. Doctor Louis Uccellini already did a top to bottom review of the National Weather Service. They made changes, some major changes and created a more streamlined, more efficient organization. They work with the National Academy of Public Administration and Congress and changed the way they worked. It took a few years, but they got it done.

And that, friends and neighbors, is how you make government more efficient. Cutting jobs and leaving offices understaffed only makes us less safe and less efficient. And here’s one thing that really stood out, he said. To be successful, even the current administration, they have to rely on government workers in every agency, and they want to accomplish something here on The Good Government Show.

We couldn’t agree more. Well, that’s our show. Thanks for listening. Please like us and share this with your friends or review us right here where you’re listening and check out our website. Good government show.com for extras. Help us keep telling stories of good government in action everywhere. Join us again for another episode right here. I’m Dave Martin and this is the Good Government show.

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**This transcription was created using digital tools and has not been edited by a live person. We apologize for any discrepancies or errors.